In a nutshell, no-one.
In the spirit of the election, I tempted you here with a big bold claim under false pretences. An open ended headline with no question mark. #clickbait
But it’s been about two months since I could be bothered to write a blog and the mixed Bank Holiday weather up here in Cumbria, means I’ve finally summoned up sufficient enthusiasm to fight off this dreaded and debilitating writer’s block.
Is anyone going to win the election, or is that just the line we’re being fed?
The suggestion that there will be no outright winner of the 2015 General Election has been the central theme of the coverage of the 2015 General Election.
Despite the fact no-one anywhere has actually voted in a booth.
But don’t get excited by a Hung Parliament Grandad, “That” Nigel Farage won’t be in charge and no-one gets hanged.
Because if we’re to believe the narrative (and using the word “narrative” has been a key part of the, erm, general election narrative), we are now locked into some kind of awful “Franken-government” come May 8th.
Some indigestible political stew that few will want to taste but everyone will be forced to swallow. Like old school dinners, but every day for the next five years.
Personally, I think the pollsters have got it wrong and the result will be more emphatic. And to back this up, I’m favouring my most reliable source…my own gut instinct.
THE REAL STORY OF THE ELECTION
The real story of the election is that the Tories aren’t hated widely enough and Labour aren’t loved widely enough.
That’s the real position we’re in.
Either one has to be really despised or demanded for majority governments to happen.
But neither appears to be happening. The Lib Dems have failed to convince anyone they made a difference. Like Emile Heskey in an England shirt.
With no clear winner. Fringe parties like the SNP and UKIP could obviously hold the balance of power.
THE X FACTORISATION OF POLITICS
The 2015 general election has revealed a creeping “X Factorisation” of politics.
How long till Jeremy Paxman is a judge pressing a button in a swivel-round chair?
But that’s not to say I haven’t enjoyed the coverage, because I have.
Especially the Daily Politics Show and Newzoids. We needed some cutting political satire, and we finally got some.
It’s healthy for democracy and seeding a political intelligence among the young.
The biggest disappointment has been the campaign trail. What was once a tricky minefield as politicians were pushed out onto the streets to meet the mad people (ie voters), it has become a staged “public” event for the media.
Which means nothing of any genuine newsworthiness will ever take place and nothing interesting will be spoken anywhere near anything switched on.
The PR vampires have drained all the blood and life out of it.
Every party is universally petrified of dropping “The Clanger” that alters the course of the election.
This is why Labour party supporters boohed journalists for asking questions at one event, and why Tory PR men shut the door on some national newspapers at another.
After all, the parties are neck-and-neck in the polls, who wants to be responsible for creating: “The defining moment?”
Of all the new TV formats, what I have enjoyed the most is the leaders being asked direct questions by members of the public.
But there have been too many debates, involving too many parties. I like Wales, it’s like Cumbria but with a better coastline.
But I had to check how to spell “Plaid Cymru” so clearly I have no interest or appetite in its position on the “austerity cats”.
CAMERON AND ELITES
At times, Cameron has tangibly looked like his heart’s not in it. Apart from when someone told him, before a speech, that it didn’t look like his heart was in it.
Then, miraculously, it really did, briefly, look like his heart was in it. And he got it working for an hour. Or until his speech finished. He was “pumped”.
Cameron struggles to smile too.
He has been pretty devastating on remembering figures but not football teams, which most would accept considering he’s running the country, not Leeds United.
Although if you ran Leeds, both skills would probably come in handy.
But if you look into Cameron’s eyes, I never see any definable political fire or light.
A lack of long term vision?
This is an idea that’s been given traction at the start of the election by the unusual announcement that he will not stand again in 2020. This is it.
He’s the boss of a business who knows that he’s got to get through five more years in the big chair until retirement.
And he’s mildly aggrieved by the amount of abuse and lack of appreciation, not to mention the piffling £142,000-a-year.
Despite attempts to appear normal, he still looks like he should be dressed in a dinner suit and playing a trombone in a Lurpak advert.
Not my words readers – the words of Frankie Boyle.
DIET LABOUR & ALAN MILIBAND
The same can be said of “Labour Lite” who have tried to win it with kids, posh kids at that.
Not one of them has ever had a “Real Job”. I suspect that only Andy Burnham would know how to get to, and drive back from, the North using only B roads and avoiding all PFI hospitals.
Not one of them, you suspect could, on a wet Wednesday night in Wigan, face down a sweaty union boardroom and table a motion to make the Monday after Super League Grand Final Weekend, a national public holiday for the North.
Miliband, in his desperate clawing to find a charisma to compensate for his awkward public persona, appears to have overdosed on old Tony Blair videos.
(Wilfully refusing to accept that many people now hate Blair and nearly 20 years later, people can spot a soundbite from, er, 20 years ago.)
Miliband cuts me as a man repeating what he’s been trained to say, rather than what he truly believes.
So nervous are Labour about their leader’s public image, someone thought it’d be a good idea to get the actor best known for playing Alan Partridge to do an electoral broadcast on his behalf.
CRICKET WITHOUT A BALL
So come May 8th, will we end up with McLabour, propped up by SNP after a “Slaybour” north of the Border?
Or will it be BLU-KIP?
It’s all to play for?
And in football terms, the public walkabout has seen no real confrontations or burst party balloons.
It’s been like watching a goalless stalemate between Mourinho’s “park-the-bus” Chelsea and George Graham’s Arsenal.
As dull as cricket without the ball..
Newsflash: Jim Murphy mobbed in Scotland by frothing SNP’s. Loud and quite shouty in terms of this campaign, but not a classic walkabout meltdown.
UKIP will get more seats and second places than predicted but in the SHOCK of the election, Farage may not win his.
For the traditional three way seat of South Thanet, over 10 candidates have piled into try to stop him.
The parties include the Al-Zebadist Nation of Ooog, and Al Murray.
Even the shocks of the election won’t be shocks – because they have already been forecast.
There’ll be more Loch Ness monsters in Scotland than Labour MPs. Clegg will lose Sheffield? A symbolic Tory big hitter has to fall?
Hunt? Ian Duncan-Smith?
Here in Cumbria, the accepted whispered wisdom is that Rory Stewart will hold, and possibly increase, his majority in Penrith and the Border, and that the ubiquitous Tim Farron is a lock down in Westmorland. (His pamphlet-making machine now flashing red, billowing smoke with alarms going off.)
Copeland will stay red and Jamie Reed will be first to announce it on Twitter.
Workington has lost one of its lowest profile MPs in living memory, but should comfortably stay Labour.
The top and bottom of the county is less easy to call.
Infact you might say Balders, it’s as slippery as a fish in a glue suit.
It is not inconceivable that the Conservatives could take Barrow back from Labour.
John Woodcock is booked in to have four Tridents tattooed on his forehead but will it be enough?
There was no Trident pledge on the “Ed stone” today.
In Carlisle, Labour could take the seat back from the Tories.
And after all that, you’re pretty much as you were.
So don’t forget to vote.